On 5 March 2026, ASPI conducted a series of war games exploring how President Xi Jinping may use his defence and security agencies to expand China's influence across the Indo-Pacific.  

We explored three scenarios: a linear trajectory out to 2031 and 2036 and an accelerated trajectory, to understand China’s possible actions and regional responses. The findings were published as a four-part series in ASPI’s The Strategist in April 2025:

1. Expanding frontiers: China’s military push beyond the first island chain: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/expanding-frontiers-chinas-military-push-beyond-the-first-island-chain/

2. Expanding frontiers: how China normalises its presence: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/expanding-frontiers-how-china-normalises-its-presence/  

3. Expanding frontiers: how China’s outward push could cause friction: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/expanding-frontiers-how-chinas-outward-push-could-cause-friction/  

4. Expanding frontiers: what happens if Beijing accelerates its Indo-Pacific push: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/expanding-frontiers-what-happens-if-beijing-accelerates-its-indo-pacific-push/

The following analysis explores what future scenarios in the South West Pacific, Indian Ocean and around Australia could look like.