China incrementally expands its military base in Djibouti, increasing capacity to support a broader range of naval and support operations

China expands logistics and resupply access through commercial ports, enabling more regular naval presence without permanent basing

China evolves anti-piracy deployments into a more routine and visible naval presence across the northern Indian Ocean

China expands its security cooperation footprint, including training and internal security engagement with regional partners

ISR: China increases survey, research and presence missions near key sea lanes and strategic chokepoints

China develops its Djibouti base into a more capable multi-domain hub supporting sustained naval and joint operations

China pushes for more regularised naval access, enabling persistent use of regional ports for logistics and sustainment

China expands naval presence into more consistent deployments across key sea lanes and operational areas

China conducts more frequent submarine patrols, particularly around critical maritime chokepoints and transit routes

Increased signalling, exercises and presence operations contribute to a more contested and complex operating environment

China rapidly expands Djibouti into a major operational hub capable of supporting sustained, high-tempo naval and joint operations

China secures expanded and faster access to regional ports, forming an integrated logistics network for continuous deployments

Naval task groups operate at higher tempo and frequency, demonstrating persistent presence across critical maritime corridors

Submarine deployments increase in scale and tempo, extending into key operational areas and strategic transit routes

More assertive signalling, exercises and grey-zone activity test regional responses and increase the risk of miscalculation