2031
In Australia’s maritime approaches, China’s emphasis out to 2031 is likely to be less on access and more on operational familiarity and signalling. Naval task groups, intelligence collection vessels and survey ships are likely to operate with increasing frequency in waters to Australia’s north and west. These deployments allow Beijing to map seabed infrastructure, monitor communications routes and better understand Australian and allied responses.
Tab 1
ISR
China increases surveillance off Australia’s northwest shelf, around key military installations and energy infrastructure
Subsurface
China uses research vessels to expand seabed mapping and hydrographic data collection
Naval
China regularises transits of naval task groups to demonstrate reach and test Australian responses
Monitoring
China deploys intelligence vessels to monitor major allied exercises and assess response patterns
2031
