China’s future in the South West Pacific

Soldiers of the Chinese PLA

2031

In the South-West Pacific, Chinese engagement is likely to focus on building access and influence through security cooperation, infrastructure development and more regularised presence. Port visits, training programs and maritime enforcement cooperation will be framed as responses to local needs, such as disaster relief, fisheries protection and capacity building. Over time, however, these activities create the conditions for more consistent access, including pre-positioned logistics and rotational deployments.

2031

Accelerated engagement

In the South-West Pacific, a more assertive Beijing would pursue port access and logistics agreements more aggressively, including dual-use arrangements and hubs capable of sustaining persistent operations. A buildup of Coast Guard and maritime militia activity would intensify pressure in fisheries and maritime zones, expanding China’s access while testing sovereignty boundaries.

Accelerated engagement
China’s excessive claims and sensitive areas