On 10 June, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) conducted a series of wargames exploring four potential scenarios President Xi might pursue to forcibly unify Taiwan. The findings were published in ASPI’s Strategist in July and August 2025.
Wargames: How may China seek to forcibly unify Taiwan?
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Subversion – The shadow war
Outlines China’s excessive maritime claims and provides detail on why those claims are inconsistent with international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Quarantine – The lawfare veil
Explores how countries use their militaries to challenge China’s excessive claims and uphold international law, rules and norms.
Blockade – The siege approach
Explores how countries use their militaries to challenge China’s excessive claims and uphold international law, rules and norms.
Invasion – A war of no winners
Explores how countries use their militaries to challenge China’s excessive claims and uphold international law, rules and norms.
