Preparing for conflict in the Taiwan Strait extends beyond military planning. In his inaugural address, President Lai Ching-te outlined the Four Pillars of Peace, a multipronged strategy to strengthen deterrence, manage tensions, and enhance national resilience. Building on his predecessor’s foundation, this framework offers a comprehensive guide to understanding Taiwan’s current security approach.
Increase defence budget and modernize the military
Produce and procure asymmetric and advanced defence capabiltiies
Build civil defence resilience including through the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee
Cross-sector coordination (defense, energy, infrastructure, healthcare) remains complex.
Chinese military activity is increasing in frequency and scale.
A divided legislature continues to block defence funding.
Diversify trade and investment away from China (31.7% of exports still go to China/HK)
Seek new trade agreements and deepen ties with other countries
Build economic resilience
Taiwan remains vulnerable to economic coercion by Beijing
Export shift requires long-term structural adjustments and investment in new markets
Expand cooperation with democratic nations
Strengthen critical supply chains, such as semiconductors
Step up exchanges on national defence and security
China continues to isolate Taiwan, including by pressuring Taiwan’s 12 remaining formal allies
Taiwan is also barred from many multilateral forums like the WHO
Advocate peace and dialogue with Beijing on the conditions of parity and dignity
Stress mutual respect and no preconditions
Reject political and military intimidation
China sees Lai as a separatist, accusing him of escalating tensions
Beijing views the DPP as shaping Taiwanese opinion toward formal independence
Striking the right balance
President Lai Ching-te must walk a political and strategic tightrope, balancing external threats and internal divisions. His efforts to prepare for potential conflict with China while maintaining democratic legitimacy and public trust involve managing four major forces:
China
The Dilemma: Lai must appear strong without giving Beijing an excuse to escalate. For example, in March 2025, Lai outlined 17 countermeasures to China’s growing infiltration.
Key challenges: China responded forcefully to these efforts, launching a large-scale military exercise, Strait Thunder 2025-A, shortly after Lai’s speech.
The Balancing Act: Lai must appear resolute without being cast as a provocateur, avoiding moves that China could use to justify further escalation.
Domestic politics
The Dilemma: Lai governs with a minority in a parliament dominated by the KMT and the TPP, both parties are generally more conciliatory toward China.
Key Challenges: In early 2025, the opposition passed defence budget cuts that undermined Lai’s plans to strengthen Taiwan’s military. Additional reductions have targeted civil society programs, cybersecurity, and the coast guard.
The Balancing Act: To advance Taiwan’s national defence while navigating a fragmented and often obstructive legislature.
The military:
The Dilemma: Taiwan’s military retains a legacy of KMT-era hierarchy and doctrine and is often skeptical of reforms led by the DPP.
Key Challenges: Lai is pushing for rapid transformation, but elements within the military continue to favour conventional platforms and centralised command structures.
The Balancing Act: Lai needs to modernise the military while managing internal resistance and preserving cohesion.
Civil Society
The Dilemma: Public support is essential, but fragile. Economic pressures and civil liberty concerns are shaping perceptions of Lai’s policies.
Key Challenges: Rising housing prices and stagnant wages have fueled public dissatisfication, undermining backing for key strategic initiatives. Meanwhile, proposals such as military tribunals to combat espionage have faced pushback, with critics viewing them as a step toward authoritarianism.
The Balancing Act: Safeguarding Taiwan while preserving the democratic freedoms and social stability it aims to protect.
