As China increasingly integrates its coast guard into military exercises around Taiwan, the prospect of a quarantine scenario has gained growing attention. In such a scenario, Beijing could manufacture a crisis to justify the imposition of a quarantine around the island. For example, it might claim that all inbound and outbound shipments require inspection due to national security concerns, such as alleged arms transfers or biological threats.
A quarantine would not necessarily seal off Taiwan but would seek to impose costs and undermine the Taiwanese Government, exerting more pressure on the population. The threat of an interruption to shipping is unnerving for an island that imports most of its fuel and much of its food.
With more than 150 large ocean-going vessels and more than 400 smaller boats, the China Coast Guard is well-equipped to enforce such a quarantine. Likely operating in coordination with the navy, which would stand off at a distance, the coast guard could try to divert commercial shipping and apply great pressure on Taiwan’s government. This would likely be accompanied by cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns designed to sow confusion, disrupt governance and further isolate Taiwan. If external support were insufficient or slow to materialise, the cumulative pressure could force Taipei to the negotiating table on Beijing’s terms.
