A blockade

Soldiers of the Chinese PLA

Since 2022, China has steadily increased the scale and tempo of its military exercises around Taiwan. In 2022, it took the PLA four days to encircle the island during drills. By 2023, that timeline was reduced to two days. By 2024, Chinese warships were able to complete a full maritime encirclement within just 24 hours.

A blockade would go far beyond a quarantine. Rather than selectively targeting vessels suspected of carrying contraband, it would be absolute, halting all shipping and air traffic to and from Taiwan.

To enforce this, China could deploy its navy to close major ports, use its air force to disrupt flight operations, and position aircraft carriers, submarines, and missile systems to deter foreign intervention. Undersea internet cables might be cut, while cyberattacks cripple communications and critical infrastructure. On-island operatives, including special forces or fifth-column actors, could conduct sabotage to intensify pressure on Taipei. Beijing would likely manufacture a pretext to justify these moves.

But regardless of the reasoning, a blockade is generally regarded as an act of war and carries real risk of military intervention from the United States and others.

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China's goals:

Create a pretext for a blockade, begin force positioning, and increase pressure on Taiwan.

Tab 1
Announcement
Create a pretext for a blockade, begin force positioning, and increase pressure on Taiwan.
Drills
China’s navy and CCG announce “maritime inspection exercises” near Taiwan’s major ports. Navigational warnings establish temporary exclusion zones.
Deployments
PLA Navy warships, aircraft carriers, and submarines are positioned east and west of Taiwan, preparing for encirclement. The PLA Air Force increases patrols in Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone.
Instability
Covert forces in Taiwan spark civil disturbances and spread disinformation to undermine public confidence in the government.
Phase 1:
One week before blockade 

China's goals:

Initiate full encirclement and enforce the blockade.

Tab 1
Announcement
Beijing declares the start of “limited operations,” framing the blockade as a temporary measure until Taipei agrees to talks on Beijing’s terms. Foreign governments are warned not to interfere in what China calls an internal matter.
Enforcement
The PLA Navy establishes a maritime perimeter around Taiwan. CCG vessels board tankers and container ships for inspection.
Pressure
The PLA Air Force uses manned and unmanned aircraft to restrict air traffic and assert control near Taiwan’s airspace. The PLA Rocket Force launches ballistic missiles over and around the island. Submarines and carrier strike groups are deployed east of Taiwan to deter outside intervention.
Disruption
PLA cyber units target critical infrastructure, including air traffic control and media systems. Special forces and PRC-aligned networks conduct sabotage against essential services and government facilities.
Phase 2:
Blockade
China’s excessive claims and sensitive areas

Next chapter:

An invasion