A stronger Taiwan is a deterrent to Beijing’s unification ambitions. But balancing deterrence with the risk of escalation remains a central challenge for countries seeking to preserve peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This dilemma sits at the heart of policymaking for governments navigating the Taiwan question, as they must weigh the risks of supporting Taiwan against the potentially greater risks of inaction.
While supporting Taiwan carries political, economic, and security risks, allowing Beijing to advance its strategic objectives unopposed poses an even greater threat to regional stability. The status quo is not static; it is increasingly dynamic and unstable, shaped by China’s growing military presence, frequent exercises, and coercive tactics. Left unchecked, these incremental changes risk normalising Chinese dominance in the Strait, undermining freedom of navigation, and shifting the balance of power in Beijing’s favour. Maintaining stability therefore requires tangible actions that both strengthen Taiwan’s resilience and increase the costs to China of further escalation.
The United States will remain the primary counterweight to Beijing’s ambitions. Yet its resources are not limitless, and commitments are already stretched across multiple regions, including Europe and the Middle East. Relying solely on the US to deter Chinese coercion and maintain the status quo is insufficient. Broader coalitions of like-minded countries are essential to share the burden, signal collective resolve, and reinforce the credibility of deterrence.